MTS

Funds

How hedge funds are reading the AI markets.

We looked at the trading history of several large hedge funds to take a look at what bets they're taking at different levels of the AI stack, as well as how those bets have changed over time.

The thesis

No. 01Situational Awareness LP

Other funds are buying half of Leopold's thesis.

Leopold Aschenbrenner's $5.5B fund is the purest AI-infrastructure bet on EDGAR. For each name in his Q4 2025 book, we counted how many of our other active filers hold it and how the aggregate dollars moved.

Buying in fast: SNDK, INTC, LITE, CRWV, TSEM. These are the semiconductor and optical-networking names where 12+ active filers concur and Q1 dollars are up double digits.

Warming up: BW, HUT, PUMP, CLSK. The cleanest "bitcoin miner pivots to AI neocloud" names, small bases but each quarter brings new institutional buyers.

Still alone: KRC, PSIX, RIOT, BTDR, EQT. Pure-play crypto miners and deep-cut energy names. Either the rest of the street disagrees, or Leopold is early.

13F-HR information tables + Form 4 ownership XML, SEC EDGAR.Situational Awareness detail
SNDK
+12.69B
INTC
+11.40B
LITE
+7.34B
CRWV
+1.25B
TSEM
+0.84B
CIFR
+0.41B
Active-filer aggregate $ in each SA name as of Q1 2026.

This quarter

No. 02Q1 2026

Where the money went this quarter.

Net flows across our filer universe for the AI book, Q4 2025 to Q1 2026. The picks-and-shovels names led: NVDA, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG.

Biggest add was NVDA (+$187.2B), held by 36 of our filers. Biggest cut was PSIX (−$6M).

13F-HR information tables + Form 4 ownership XML, SEC EDGAR.
NVDA
+187.24B
AAPL
+169.62B
AMZN
+82.99B
GOOG
+62.48B
AVGO
+48.27B
AMAT
+40.11B
KLAC
+29.95B
INTC
+26.51B

Smart money & rotation

No. 03Coatue

The picks-and-shovels rotation, dated to the quarter.

Coatue's AI book in early 2023 was the obvious longs: NVDA, MSFT, META, TSLA, LRCX. Their NVDA position has been trimmed actively while the stock climbed. The names they added since are dateable.

  • Q3 2023VRT$430M$246M
  • Q4 2023AAPL$471M$471M
  • Q1 2024AVGO$552M$1.7B
  • Q1 2024CEG$379M$1.3B
  • Q1 2024DELL$482M$1.0B
  • Q1 2024QCOM$620M$209M
  • Q1 2024VST$224M$409M
  • Q4 2024SMCI$270M$304M

The thesis crystallized in Q2 2023 when Eaton and Equinix entered, six to nine months before mainstream coverage discovered the AI power bottleneck. ASML was the newest addition in Q1 2026.

13F-HR information tables + Form 4 ownership XML, SEC EDGAR.Coatue detail
VRT
+0.25B
AAPL
+0.47B
AVGO
+1.70B
CEG
+1.29B
DELL
+1.01B
QCOM
+0.21B
No. 04Insider alignment

ARK trades most like insiders. BlackRock trades against them.

For each fund and ticker, we computed the correlation between quarterly position changes and insider net flow in that same quarter. We required at least 30 paired observations per fund.

Renaissance at +0.36 is the most insider-aligned. ARK at +0.24 is the surprise, since they are a pure-quant shop.

At the bottom, Whale Rock at -0.27 systematically buys when insiders sell. The passive giants cluster near zero, as expected.

13F-HR information tables + Form 4 ownership XML, SEC EDGAR.
Renaissance
+0.36
ARK
+0.24
Citadel
+0.16
Balyasny
+0.12
T. Rowe Price
+0.12
Millennium
+0.10
Vanguard
+0.09
Point72
+0.09
Bridgewater
+0.08
Maverick
+0.07

Insider behaviour

No. 05Magnetar · CRWV

The IPO financier is selling to index funds.

Magnetar Financial structured chunks of CoreWeave's pre-IPO debt. Since the unlock window opened, they have sold $5.6B across 1,715 transactions between 2025-08 and 2026-05.

Our 13F universe now holds $5.5B of CRWV across 26 filers, a near-mirror of what Magnetar sold. But 77% of that institutional book sits in passive index funds, who had to buy once CRWV joined the indexes.

Active conviction is much narrower: Altimeter $349M, Fidelity $251M, ARK $197M, Viking $108M. The unlock is going to index plumbing, not to discretionary capital betting on the name.

13F-HR information tables + Form 4 ownership XML, SEC EDGAR.CRWV detail
2025-082026-05

The skeptics

No. 06Berkshire Hathaway

Berkshire sat out the entire AI rally. In Q1 2026, they bought Alphabet.

From 2023 through 2025, Berkshire's 13F shows zero AI or datacenter names. Their only prior AI holding was Taiwan Semiconductor, held briefly in Q3 and Q4 2022 and sold before any of NVDA's 5x run.

Then in Q1 2026 they opened a position in Alphabet worth roughly $1.0B. The most respected value investor on Earth sat out the entire cycle, then bought the cheapest of the megacap AI names.

13F-HR information tables + Form 4 ownership XML, SEC EDGAR.Berkshire detail
AAPL
AMZN
GOOG
TSM
Q4 2022Q1 2026