MTS

Wiki/Reference

Primary Sources for AI Capex Research

A working reference for finding primary data on AI infrastructure capital expenditure, data center power, and the supply chain. Organized by source category. Every entry is intended to let a reader pull the underlying numbers themselves rather than relying on secondhand reporting.

Last reviewed: 2026-05.


1. SEC EDGAR Filings (Free)

Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR URL: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch Full-text search: https://efts.sec.gov/LATEST/search-index?q= XBRL API: https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK{10-digit}.json Cost: Free, no login

How to pull a 10-K

  1. Search by ticker or CIK at the EDGAR company search.
  2. Filter Filing Type = "10-K" (annual) or "10-Q" (quarterly) or "8-K" (material events).
  3. Open the most recent filing and look for the "10-K" or "Form 10-K" exhibit (not the cover-page index).
  4. For machine-readable financials, use the companyfacts JSON endpoint by CIK (e.g., https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000789019.json for Microsoft). The fields PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, PropertyPlantAndEquipmentNet, and Depreciation are the workhorses for capex tracking.

Key sections that matter for capex

  • Item 1A – Risk Factors: capacity constraints, power availability, GPU supply, customer concentration.
  • Item 7 – MD&A: the prose explanation of capex run-rate, "purchase commitments," and forward guidance. The hyperscaler "long-lived assets" disclosure is here.
  • Item 7A – Quantitative Disclosures: power-price hedges, FX.
  • Notes to Financial Statements – typically Notes 4/5/6: Property, Plant & Equipment by category and useful life; lease obligations (data center leases); commitments and contingencies (multi-billion power and chip purchase orders).
  • Item 8 – Cash Flow Statement: the actual capex line ("purchases of property and equipment").

Tickers and CIKs worth tracking

Hyperscalers and silicon:

Ticker Company CIK
MSFT Microsoft 0000789019
META Meta Platforms 0001326801
GOOG / GOOGL Alphabet 0001652044
AMZN Amazon 0001018724
ORCL Oracle 0001341439
AAPL Apple 0000320193
NVDA NVIDIA 0001045810
AVGO Broadcom 0001730168
AMD Advanced Micro Devices 0000002488
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor (20-F, not 10-K) 0001046179
ANET Arista Networks 0001596532
VRT Vertiv 0001674101
EQIX Equinix (REIT) 0001101239
DLR Digital Realty (REIT) 0001297996
IRM Iron Mountain 0001020569

Neoclouds and GPU-as-a-service:

Ticker Company
CRWV CoreWeave
APLD Applied Digital
IREN IREN (formerly Iris Energy)
CORZ Core Scientific
HUT Hut 8
WULF TeraWulf
CIFR Cipher Mining
NBIS Nebius Group

Newer EDGAR tools

  • XBRL Financial Data API (data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/): pulls standardized tags across filers. Concept lookups (/concept/...) let you compare the same line item across all hyperscalers in one curl.
  • EDGAR Full-Text Search (https://efts.sec.gov/LATEST/search-index?q=...): regex-style search across all filings. Example: q=%22data+center%22+%22power+purchase+agreement%22&dateRange=custom&startdt=2024-01-01&forms=10-K.

Example query worth citing

Microsoft FY2024 10-K (filed July 30, 2024), Item 7 MD&A — discloses $44.5B FY2024 capex and the explicit shift to "AI infrastructure" within PP&E. Pull via: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000789019&type=10-K


2. Earnings Call Transcripts

Source URL Access Notes
Motley Fool https://www.fool.com/earnings-call-transcripts/ Free, partial Truncated Q&A; good for prepared remarks.
Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/earnings/earnings-call-transcripts Paywalled (~$240/yr) Cleanest full transcripts.
AlphaStreet https://news.alphastreet.com/category/transcripts/ Free Full transcripts, slower to post.
Company IR pages (per issuer) Free The original audio + slides; often the only primary source for guidance language.
Quartr https://quartr.com Freemium Audio + auto-generated transcripts, good mobile UX.
Roic.ai / Stratosphere.io various Freemium Aggregates transcripts with metric extraction.

Update frequency: Quarterly, within 24-72 hours of the call.

Example to cite: Meta Q1 2025 earnings call, prepared remarks — Zuckerberg's "$60-65B" capex range, followed by Susan Li's color on Llama training spend. Cross-reference Motley Fool with Meta IR's PDF transcript at https://investor.atmeta.com.


3. DOE / LBNL Energy Reports

Report / Program URL Notes
2024 U.S. Data Center Energy Usage Report (LBNL, Dec 2024) https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-12/lbnl-2024-united-states-data-center-energy-usage-report.pdf The landmark study. Projects 6.7–12.0% of U.S. electricity by 2028.
LBNL Data Center Energy Program https://datacenters.lbl.gov Earlier studies (2016, 2007), water use, PUE benchmarks.
DOE Loan Programs Office (LPO) https://www.energy.gov/lpo/loan-programs-office Loan guarantees for grid + nuclear. Active portfolio JSON at https://www.energy.gov/lpo/portfolio-projects.
EIA Grid Monitor / Hourly demand https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/ Hourly load by BA — see Section 4.
DOE Critical Materials Assessment https://www.energy.gov/eere/critical-materials-assessment Gallium, germanium, copper for power infra.
DOE Grid Deployment Office https://www.energy.gov/gdo/grid-deployment-office Transmission planning, NIETC corridors.

Cost: All free. Update frequency: LBNL major reports roughly every 5–8 years; DOE LPO data updated monthly; EIA grid monitor hourly.

Example to cite: Shehabi et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, LBNL-2001637 — the "176 TWh in 2023" baseline figure that every analyst now anchors against.


4. EIA (Energy Information Administration)

Root URL: https://www.eia.gov Open Data API: https://www.eia.gov/opendata/ (free API key) Cost: Free.

Dataset URL Frequency Use
Form EIA-861 (utility sales & customers) https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia861/ Annual (Oct release for prior year) Sales to commercial/industrial by utility — proxy for data center load.
Form EIA-860 (generator inventory) https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860/ Annual + monthly preliminary Every generator by plant, fuel, online date, retirement.
Form EIA-923 (monthly generation & fuel) https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia923/ Monthly Plant-level MWh and fuel burn.
Hourly Grid Monitor https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/dashboard/electric_overview/US48/US48 Hourly Demand by Balancing Authority — watch PJM AEP, Dominion (DOM), ERCO, MISO.
Industrial sector sales by state https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/ Monthly Track Virginia, Texas, Iowa, Oregon, Arizona.
Short-Term Energy Outlook https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ Monthly National load forecast with data-center adjustment since mid-2024.
Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/ Annual Now has a data-center "side case" as of AEO2025.

Example to cite: EIA-861 2023 release, Dominion Virginia Power industrial sales — shows the inflection in Northern Virginia commercial-class consumption. Cross with PJM DOM zone load (Section 6).


5. FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission)

Root URL: https://www.ferc.gov eLibrary (orders/filings): https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/search Cost: Free; no login for read-only.

Resource URL Notes
eLibrary full docket search https://elibrary.ferc.gov/eLibrary/search Search by docket, filer, full text.
FERC Form 1 (utility financial) https://www.ferc.gov/industries-data/electric/general-information/electric-industry-forms Annual; rate base data.
FERC Form 714 (planning area hourly) https://www.ferc.gov/industries-data/electric/general-information/electric-industry-forms/form-no-714-annual-electric/data Annual; hourly load history.
Electric Quarterly Reports (EQR) https://www.ferc.gov/power-sales-and-markets/electric-quarterly-reports-eqr Wholesale market transactions.
Open Access Same-Time Information System (OASIS) per RTO Transmission availability.

Dockets worth watching

  • ER24-2172 — Talen / Susquehanna co-located Amazon load Interconnection Service Agreement; rejected Nov 2024. Sets the precedent on "behind-the-meter" data center deals.
  • EL24-122 / EL24-123 — AEP and Exelon complaint over same.
  • RM22-14 (Order 2023) — interconnection queue reform.
  • RM21-17 (Order 1920) — long-term regional transmission planning, finalized May 2024.
  • AD24-11 — FERC technical conference on large-load interconnection (Nov 2024).
  • PJM capacity auction filings — search docket prefix ER25- for PJM.

LMP / market data:

Example to cite: FERC Order rejecting Talen ISA amendment, Docket ER24-2172, issued Nov 1, 2024. The 2-1 decision (Christie, Rosner dissenting in part) is the canonical primary source for the co-location debate.


6. ISO / RTO Data

All free unless noted. The interconnection queues are the leading indicator of future capacity build.

PJM (Mid-Atlantic, incl. Northern Virginia)

ERCOT (Texas)

MISO

SPP

CAISO

NYISO

ISO-NE

Example to cite: PJM 2025/26 Base Residual Auction results — the cleared price (and the LDA-level splits for DOM and BGE) is the cleanest market signal on data-center capacity scarcity.


7. State Public Utility Commissions

Each PUC publishes dockets, testimony, IRPs, and rate case filings. All free; some require account creation to download attachments.

State / Body Portal Cases to watch
Virginia SCC https://scc.virginia.gov/casesearch Dominion 2024 IRP (Case PUR-2024-00184); data center cost-allocation proceeding.
Georgia PSC https://psc.ga.gov/search/facts-document-search/ Georgia Power 2025 IRP Update (Docket 56002); Mickey's Creek and Robins AFB load.
Indiana URC https://iurc.portal.in.gov/legal-case-details/ NIPSCO 2024 IRP; AEP Indiana Michigan rate case; Duke Energy Indiana IRP.
Texas PUC https://interchange.puc.texas.gov Docket 56822 (large-load interconnection rule); ERCOT-PUC joint workshops.
Ohio PUCO https://dis.puc.state.oh.us AEP Ohio data-center tariff (Case 24-508-EL-ATA).
Oregon PUC https://apps.puc.state.or.us/edockets/ PacifiCorp, PGE IRPs; Hillsboro cluster.
Arizona ACC https://docket.images.azcc.gov APS and SRP planning; Maricopa load.
Iowa Utilities Board https://efs.iowa.gov MidAmerican; West Des Moines (Microsoft cluster).
Mississippi PSC https://www.psc.state.ms.us Entergy Mississippi data-center tariffs.
Washington UTC https://www.utc.wa.gov/casedocket PSE Quincy cluster.

Example to cite: Virginia SCC Case PUR-2024-00184 — Dominion's 2024 Integrated Resource Plan filing. Volume 1 narrative + Volume 3 load forecast appendix contain Dominion's explicit Northern Virginia data-center MW build-out by year through 2039.


8. Local Government Records

Zoning approvals, special-use permits, and water/sewer agreements are the earliest leading indicator — usually 12-24 months before energization.

Jurisdiction Portal What to look for
Loudoun County, VA (BOS + Planning) https://loudoun.gov/agendas; https://lod.loudoun.gov Special exception (SPEX) applications; SBLA letters; Dominion service requests.
Prince William County, VA https://www.pwcva.gov/department/planning-office "Digital Gateway" rezoning; PW Digital.
Fairfax County, VA https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/planning-development/ Reston, Herndon zoning.
Memphis / Shelby County, TN https://shelbycountytn.gov; https://memphistn.gov xAI Colossus permitting, MLGW power agreements.
Maricopa County, AZ https://www.maricopa.gov/2731/Planning-Development Goodyear, Mesa, Phoenix data center parcels.
Hillsboro / Washington County, OR https://www.co.washington.or.us Hyperscaler cluster permits.
Dallas / Tarrant / Denton County, TX county portals Anywhere along the I-35/I-30 corridor.
Hennepin County, MN https://www.hennepin.us Emerging Twin Cities builds.
Story County / Altoona, IA https://www.storycountyiowa.gov Microsoft West Des Moines.
Henrico / Chesterfield County, VA county portals Southside Virginia expansion.

Tip: Most counties post planning commission packets as PDFs 5-10 days before the meeting. Set a Google Alert: site:loudoun.gov "data center" filetype:pdf.

Example to cite: Loudoun County BOS Business Meeting Action Item, "SPEX-2024-XXXX," for any named hyperscaler campus — these packets include parcel acreage, building square footage, and the requested MW load.


9. Industry Research (Mixed)

Source URL Access Strength
SemiAnalysis (Dylan Patel) https://www.semianalysis.com Paid (~$500-$2,500/yr); free posts weekly GPU economics, accelerator roadmaps, supply chain.
SemiWiki https://semiwiki.com Free Foundry process nodes, EDA.
Tom's Hardware https://www.tomshardware.com Free Consumer-tier benchmarks, sometimes leaks.
AnandTech (archive) https://www.anandtech.com Free; site wound down 2024 Historical deep dives.
Wood Mackenzie https://www.woodmac.com Paid; free press releases Power markets, solar/storage.
S&P Global Commodity Insights / Platts https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights Paid Power LMPs, gas prices, supply contracts.
Aurora Energy Research https://auroraer.com Paid; free webinars UK / EU / U.S. power forecasts.
Synergy Research Group https://www.srgresearch.com Paid; press releases free Cloud market share, capex totals.
Omdia https://omdia.tech.informa.com Paid Server / GPU shipments.
IDC https://www.idc.com Paid IT spending trackers.
Gartner https://www.gartner.com Paid Hype Cycles, IT forecasts.
Datacenter Dynamics (DCD) https://www.datacenterdynamics.com Free Build announcements, M&A news.
Data Center Knowledge https://www.datacenterknowledge.com Free Trade press.
Data Center Frontier https://www.datacenterfrontier.com Free The best free U.S. trade publication; Rich Miller.
The Information https://www.theinformation.com Paid (~$400/yr) Hyperscaler scoops; org-chart granularity.
451 Research (S&P) https://451research.com Paid Datacenter capex models.
Dell'Oro Group https://www.delloro.com Paid; press releases Switch / optics / server shipments.

Example to cite: SemiAnalysis "AI Datacenter Industrial Model" (subscription) — the granular GPU-to-MW conversion factor that every sell-side analyst now uses. For a free anchor, cite Synergy Research's quarterly hyperscaler capex press release.


10. Academic / Think Tank

Source URL Focus
Resources for the Future (RFF) https://www.rff.org Data-center load growth, grid policy.
LBNL Energy Analysis & Environmental Impacts Division https://eaei.lbl.gov The home of the 2024 DC energy report.
LBNL Electricity Markets & Policy Group https://emp.lbl.gov Tracking the Sun, queue studies, IRPs.
UC Berkeley Energy & Resources Group (ERG) https://erg.berkeley.edu Cradle-to-grave energy systems.
Stanford Precourt Institute for Energy https://energy.stanford.edu Sustainability of compute.
Brookings (Metropolitan Policy Program) https://www.brookings.edu Regional economic impact.
AEI Energy & Environment https://www.aei.org/policy-areas/energy-environment/ Center-right policy.
Climate XChange https://climate-xchange.org State carbon policy + data centers.
Niskanen Center (climate) https://www.niskanencenter.org/climate/ Permitting, transmission.
Berkeley Haas Energy Institute https://haas.berkeley.edu/energy-institute/ Severin Borenstein; rate design.
MIT CEEPR https://ceepr.mit.edu Working papers on power markets.
EPRI https://www.epri.com Utility-funded; data center efficiency.

Example to cite: Aniruddh Mohan et al., "Growing data center electricity demand in the United States," RFF Working Paper (2024) — the most-cited academic forecast outside LBNL.


11. GitHub / Open Data

Resource URL What
EPA eGRID https://www.epa.gov/egrid Emissions intensity (lb CO2/MWh) by eGRID subregion. Annual; the 2023 release dropped Jan 2025.
Our World in Data — Energy https://ourworldindata.org/energy Global per-country energy, downloadable CSV.
OpenInfraMap https://openinframap.org OSM-derived map of substations, transmission, plants.
PowerOutage.us https://poweroutage.us Real-time outage tracker; useful for grid stress events.
Data Center Map https://www.datacentermap.com Crowdsourced facility locations.
dgtl Infra https://dgtlinfra.com Free analyst-style maps and tables of campuses by operator.
Baxtel https://baxtel.com Another crowdsourced DC inventory.
Loudoun County DC Map published in BOS materials; informal copies on GitHub (search "loudoun data center map") The canonical "Data Center Alley" footprint.
Climate TRACE https://climatetrace.org Facility-level emissions, including DC where measurable.
Global Energy Monitor https://globalenergymonitor.org Plant-level tracker for coal, gas, nuclear builds.
OpenEI https://openei.org DOE-curated datasets, including utility rates database (URDB).
Carbon Mapper / WattTime https://www.watttime.org Marginal emissions per grid region.

Example to cite: eGRID2023 Subregion file — pull "SRVC" (Virginia/Carolinas) lb CO2/MWh to compare against any hyperscaler's "matched" RECs claim.


12. People to Follow

Curated by lane. All accessible free unless noted; Substack often has a paid tier with the high-signal content.

Compute / chip economics:

  • Dylan Patel — SemiAnalysis. X: @dylan522p.
  • Doug O'Laughlin — Fabricated Knowledge. https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com
  • Stacy Rasgon — Bernstein sell-side; cited but not on Substack.

Hyperscaler energy:

  • Brian Janous — former Microsoft VP of Energy; now Cloverleaf Infrastructure. X: @bjanous.
  • Austin Vernon — austinvernon.site. Independent engineer writing on cost curves.
  • Brian Potter — Construction Physics (Substack). Build cost and supply chain.

Macro / capital markets bulls:

  • Brad Gerstner — Altimeter. Public on CNBC + X: @altcap.
  • David Sacks — All-In; AI Czar. X: @DavidSacks.
  • Andy Kessler — WSJ columnist.

Skeptics / bears:

  • Ed Zitron — Where's Your Ed At (Substack). X: @edzitron.
  • Brett ChristophersThe Price is Wrong; academic critique of energy markets.
  • Doomberg — Substack (paid). Energy realist.

Power journalists:

  • Catherine Morehouse — Politico Pro Energy. https://www.politico.com/staff/catherine-morehouse
  • Ethan Howland — Utility Dive.
  • Robert Walton — Utility Dive.
  • Diana DiGangi — Utility Dive.
  • Peter Behr — E&E News / Politico.
  • Jennifer Hiller — WSJ energy.
  • Rich Miller — Data Center Frontier (still the dean of the beat).

Permitting / siting:

  • Tyler Norris — Duke Nicholas School; flexible load research.
  • Rob Gramlich — Grid Strategies LLC; transmission policy.

13. Trade Associations

Org URL What they publish
Data Center Coalition https://www.datacentercoalition.org Industry lobby; state-level position papers, occasional economic impact studies.
iMasons (Infrastructure Masons) https://imasons.org Engineering community; iMasons Climate Accord disclosures.
Uptime Institute https://uptimeinstitute.com Global Data Center Survey (free, annual).
Edison Electric Institute (EEI) https://www.eei.org Investor-owned utility lobby; transmission and load growth statements.
NEMA (National Electrical Manufacturers Association) https://www.nema.org Transformer / switchgear capacity and lead times.
ACORE (American Council on Renewable Energy) https://acore.org Clean energy buyers, PPA volumes.
Clean Energy Buyers Association (CEBA) https://cebuyers.org Corporate PPA tracker (the authoritative U.S. dataset).
Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) https://www.seia.org Quarterly solar market insight with Wood Mac.
American Clean Power (ACP) https://cleanpower.org Quarterly market reports on wind, solar, storage.
Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) https://www.nei.org SMR and uprate tracking.
National Mining Association https://nma.org Coal generation defense; relevant for grid-constrained regions.

Example to cite: CEBA "Deal Tracker" — the standard reference for corporate clean-energy procurement volumes (hyperscalers dominate the leaderboard).


14. International

Source URL Use
IEA — Electricity 2025 https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2025 The data-center chapter is the canonical global forecast; cites 945 TWh by 2030.
IEA — Energy and AI special report (2025) https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai Standalone deep dive published April 2025.
OECD AI Policy Observatory https://oecd.ai Country AI policy database; compute infrastructure tagged.
European Commission — Energy reports https://energy.ec.europa.eu EU data center sustainability regulation, EED Article 12 reporting.
EU Data Centre Energy Reporting (EED Art. 12) https://energy-efficient-products.ec.europa.eu/ecodesign-and-energy-label/product-list/data-centres_en Mandatory EU-wide DC efficiency disclosure starting 2024.
Ofgem (UK regulator) https://www.ofgem.gov.uk UK grid, connection reform.
National Grid ESO (UK) https://www.nationalgrideso.com Future Energy Scenarios.
Eurostat — Energy https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/energy EU electricity statistics.
ENTSO-E Transparency Platform https://transparency.entsoe.eu EU-wide hourly load, generation, prices. Free login.
CRU Group https://www.crugroup.com Paid; copper, aluminum, steel for grid/DC.
Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables https://www.woodmac.com Paid; global PPA and capacity.
Rystad Energy https://www.rystadenergy.com Paid; oil & gas + power.
BloombergNEF https://about.bnef.com Paid via Bloomberg Terminal; some free reports.
China NEA / NDRC announcements http://www.nea.gov.cn Chinese grid investment, "Eastern Data Western Compute" megaproject.
Japan METI https://www.meti.go.jp/english/ Japan's AI semiconductor and grid policy.
Korea KEPCO https://home.kepco.co.kr South Korea grid and DC growth.

Example to cite: IEA Energy and AI (April 2025), Figure 2.X — the per-region split of global data-center electricity demand. Pair with the EED Article 12 EU dataset for facility-level European disclosure.


Workflow Recipe

A reproducible "find the number" workflow for a typical AI-capex question:

  1. Start with the 10-K cash-flow line (EDGAR / XBRL) for the headline capex number.
  2. Cross-check the earnings transcript (AlphaStreet / IR PDF) for forward guidance language and the "AI vs. non-AI" split.
  3. Pull the relevant PJM/ERCOT load forecast for the geography where that capex is going.
  4. Check the state PUC docket for the load-serving utility's IRP, which translates capex into MW and into rate impact.
  5. Cross-reference county planning packets for site-specific parcel and MW values.
  6. Compare against LBNL / IEA top-down forecast to sanity-check the rollup.
  7. Use eGRID + CEBA to translate the MW into emissions and PPA volumes.

Following this loop keeps every number traceable to a primary, citable source — which is the entire point of this page.