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SK Hynix Q3 2025 earnings + 2025 semi-annual DART filing

Date: Q3 2025 results released October 29, 2025; H1 2025 semi-annual DART filing (반기보고서) filed mid-August 2025.

Why it matters: SK Hynix is the HBM market share leader (~70% of Nvidia HBM4 secured) and the producer most exposed to Nvidia. The Q3 2025 release contains the "essentially sold out through 2026" statement and the supply-demand imbalance quote. The H1 DART filing — the Korean semi-annual report — contains the 27% single-customer revenue concentration disclosure, which the company's SEC-equivalent ADR filings do not surface.

Primary sources:

Load-bearing facts

27% of H1 2025 revenue from a single customer

The SK Hynix 2025 semi-annual DART filing discloses that a single un-named customer accounted for ~27% of consolidated revenue in H1 2025 (~₩10.89 trillion).

For comparison, the same disclosure for full-year 2024 was 16% (~₩10.9T). Concentration nearly doubled in six months.

Market consensus identifies the customer as Nvidia. SK Hynix does not name the customer; Korean disclosure rules require concentration reporting but not customer identification.

Why: This is the single most-load-bearing buyer-concentration datapoint in the cycle. It quantifies the structural Nvidia dependence that any "diversified hyperscaler demand" narrative skates over. A single-customer order cut at this concentration cuts SK Hynix consolidated revenue more than any past cycle.

"Sold out through 2026"

  • March 2025 shareholder meeting: CEO Kwak Noh-Jung said HBM was "essentially sold out" through 2026.
  • Q3 2025 earnings call (Oct 29): Reconfirmed. Kwak quote: "As this supply-demand imbalance persists, customers are prioritizing procurement over price."
  • Q4 2025 / Q1 2026 commentary: Kim Jae-joon (CFO): "We have already sold out our entire 2026 HBM supply."

Why: This is the most-quoted demand-side line in the cycle. But — critical — it is a public-statement framing, not a disclosed contractual structure. Korean securities filings have not published the underlying LTA terms. "Sold out" is reservation; whether it is enforceable take-or-pay is unknown from public disclosure.

Capex framing

From the Q1 2026 call: "Our policy is to execute investment with CapEx discipline, taking demand visibility into account... thereby ensuring both supply stability and financial soundness."

2024 capex: 16T KRW ($11.7B), +90% YoY — but still below the 2022 peak of 19T KRW.

Why: Aligned with the cross-industry discipline doctrine. SK Hynix is investing aggressively into HBM, but the level remains below the speculative high of 2022. See supply/capex-discipline.md.

Buyer behavior

From an October 2025 trade press piece, customers reportedly offered to fund EUV machines and new fab lines to secure SK Hynix supply. (Tom's Hardware.)

Why: Extreme datapoint on buyer desperation. Flag: needs corroboration against Korean-language primary source.

What this filing implies

Three things, beyond what is explicitly said:

  1. The structural Nvidia dependence is now disclosed in Korean filings but not in English-language coverage. The 27% number is a DART disclosure — the Korean Financial Supervisory Service requires it. Coverage that runs through trade press picks it up; coverage that doesn't read DART filings misses it.
  2. The "sold out" framing is rhetorical, not contractual. Korean filings do not publish underlying LTA terms. Whether the 2026 book is enforceable take-or-pay or polite reservation is hidden.
  3. The Nvidia-HBM4 70% share is structural, not negotiable. If Nvidia hits its FY26-FY27 revenue targets, SK Hynix collects. If Nvidia misses, SK Hynix's 27% concentration becomes the leading indicator of damage on the producer side.

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